URI Prof. Isaac Ginis’ team is making dramatic improvements in storm damage prediction

By Press release submission

Sep 29, 2022

“I don’t predict a hurricane season. If a hurricane makes landfall near where you live, that is an active season for you,” says URI Professor of Oceanography Isaac Ginis.

Yet predicting the severity of a hurricane can mean the difference between life and death, which is why Ginis makes it his business to predict the power of these ferocious storms. He developed a computer model so successful it was adopted by the National Weather Service. As one of the few scientists worldwide to show the role the ocean plays in hurricanes, Ginis essentially proved that ocean temperature is the most important factor in hurricane intensity and power.

Ginis’s research efforts have resulted in pioneering advances in modeling of the tropical cyclone-ocean interactions that have led to significant improvements in hurricane intensity forecast skills.

His research group has contributed to the development of the Hurricane Weather Research Forecast model used by the U.S. National Hurricane Center and Joint Typhoon Warning Center for operational forecasting of tropical cyclones in all ocean basins. One of his team’s most recent projects, the Rhode Island Coastal Hazards, Analysis, Modeling and Prediction (RI-CHAMP) system, which launched in June, advances storm model capabilities and develops a real-time hazard and impact prediction system for hurricanes and nor’easters in Southern New England. The system provides actionable information to decision makers in helping to prepare for a storm. When it comes to forecasting hurricanes, the focus is usually on more tropical locales. However, Ginis says, “the farther they move to the north, the more complex they become.”